SRC Colloquia/Seminars

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202 Barrows Hall
12:00 noon, Thursday, May 8, 2008

Michael D. Ward, Professor of Political Science,
University of Washington

ANALYZING SPATIAL DEPENDENCIES IN GEO-ECONOMICS AND GEO-POLITICS

Abstract:

Using data over the period from 1950-2000 we estimate a model of bilateral international trade to explore the linkages between a) alliances, b)joint memberships in international institutions, c) mutual cooperation and d) conflict, e) mutual economic freedom and f) democracy and bilateral trade. We incorporate of exporter and importer effects as well as reciprocity into a gravity model and cross-validate it against annual out-of-sample data. The resulting, empirical findings show the importance of second and third order dependencies in bilateral trade data. Military alliances, membership in IGOs, international cooperation, and mutual economic freedom are shown to be strongly associated with bilateral trade. Conversely, conflict and the level of democracy do not demonstrate strong, discernable linkages to bilateral trade. Our analysis is embedded in a model that incorporates geospatial dependencies, which are strong, and latent spatial connections, which are even stronger.

FUTURE SEMINAR

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SRC Conference Room, 2538 Channing Way
12:00 noon, Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Zachary Markovits and Douglas Spencer,
Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley

Lines at Polling Stations? Observations from the 2008 California Primary

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       *** TBA ****